Evidence #14

4 charts covering AI usage, dating, education, and isolation.

Evidence is a unique dinner experience with the purpose of enabling relationships through meaningful and open discussion. To accomplish this, we assemble leading investors, founders, operators, and creatives. Each guest contributes a chart for discussion that is “evidence of a changing world.” These dinners are hosted by Index Ventures. Interested to get these notes? Subscribe here.

Dinner Summary (via ChatGPT):

The group dinner was hosted in NYC. It was led by Damir Becirovic and joined by a group of technology company founders and operators.

The discussion was largely centered around the profound impact of technology on social behavior, education, and community engagement, highlighting shifts such as the early decline in dating app popularity, the rise of skepticism towards online interactions, and the increasing value of vocational education amid rising college costs.

We also explored the erosion of low-cost social interactions and traditional civic engagement, with people increasingly seeking forms of community through activities like sports. Lastly, we discussed the societal trend towards conformity and the search for purpose in an increasingly digital and, despite some conflicts, peaceful world.

This dinner was joined by 2 founders of private technology companies and 1 operator from a private technology company.

• Current Limitations of LLMs: Large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT are better at generating plausible text rather than providing accurate or reliable information, which limits their effectiveness in tasks that require deep reasoning.

• Comparison of AI Tools: The discussion highlighted differences between AI tools, specifically noting that Perplexity AI has shown surprising effectiveness in tasks requiring reasoning and logical steps, enhancing its trustworthiness when it provides citations.

• AI for Personal Information Management: The potential for AI to store and recall personal information, similar to a personal assistant, was discussed, with concerns raised about privacy and the legal implications of such technologies.

• Future of AI in Task Automation: There was speculation on the future capabilities of AI in automating more complex tasks, such as booking flights, managing appointments, or even conducting conversations, leading to the idea of AI-powered personal assistants akin to fictional systems like Jarvis.

• Impact on White-Collar Jobs: The conversation touched on the potential for AI to take over certain white-collar jobs, particularly those that involve repetitive tasks or predefined scripts, such as sales development representatives (SDRs) or virtual customer service roles.

• Declining Popularity of Dating Apps: The discussion highlighted a significant decline in dating app downloads and user engagement since 2019. Despite their dominance over the past three decades, dating apps seem to be losing their resonance with consumers, especially as younger generations like Gen Z prefer meeting people in person. This trend is also reflected in the declining stock prices of major dating app companies like Bumble and Match Group.

• Shift in Social Behaviors: The conversation noted a broader trend of people, particularly Gen Z, spending more time at home and being more content with being single. This shift in behavior is likely influenced by the increased use of technology, economic factors, and a general decline in third spaces (like malls) where people used to socialize in person.

• Skepticism and Distrust in Online Dating: There's a growing sentiment of distrust towards people met through dating apps, with users becoming more skeptical about the authenticity of the profiles they encounter. The rise of catfishing, deepfakes, and other deceptive practices has contributed to this growing distrust, leading people to prefer in-person interactions or connections within trusted social circles.

• Environmental and Economic Factors: The discussion touched on the influence of economic and environmental factors on dating and social behaviors. For example, the rising cost of going out and the lack of free, communal spaces are contributing to more people staying at home. Additionally, environmental concerns like microplastics are also being linked to broader societal trends, such as declining male fertility rates.

• The Future of Dating: We speculated on the future of dating, suggesting that traditional dating apps may be on the decline and could be replaced by more localized, community-driven, or niche solutions. There’s also a discussion about the potential for new apps or services that integrate deeper social connections and endorsements from trusted friends, indicating a possible return to more socially rooted ways of meeting people.

• Disproportionate Growth of Administrative Overhead: There is a significant increase in administrative costs in educational institutions, particularly in higher education, without a corresponding rise in teacher salaries or improvements in student outcomes. This raised concerns about the allocation of resources and whether they are truly benefiting the core educational mission.

• Changing Nature of Higher Education: Higher education, particularly at elite institutions, was increasingly seen as offering more than just education—it's providing a luxury experience, status, and a well-rounded social environment. This shift in focus may justify rising administrative costs but also underscores the commercialization of the education system.

• Impact of Technology on Early Education: The pervasive use of smartphones and tablets was seen as detrimental to student learning and development, particularly in early education. Teachers and parents are struggling with the negative effects of screen time on students' attention spans, motivation, and overall educational outcomes.

• Vocational Education as a Growing Need: There was a growing recognition of the value of vocational education, especially in the face of rising tuition costs and the questionable return on investment for certain college degrees. Vocational training offers practical skills and a direct path to well-paying jobs, filling a crucial gap in the current education system.

• Erosion of Civic Duty and Community Engagement: The discussion highlighted a decline in civic education and community engagement, exacerbated by factors such as reduced homeownership and the transient nature of renting. This decline is seen as contributing to a broader sense of social isolation and a lack of purpose among individuals, which could have long-term negative effects on society.

• Decline in Desire to Stand Out: There's been a noticeable decrease in people's interest in being unique or standing out over the past 25 years. This trend could be influenced by various factors, including the pressures of social media, where the cost of standing out can be high, leading people to conform more to group norms rather than seeking individuality.

• Impact of Social Media and Public Settings: The rise of social media as a public space has shifted how people engage in conversations. Many individuals, especially those with nuanced opinions, avoid standing out online due to the fear of being ganged up on or misunderstood. This has contributed to a more reserved and less confrontational public discourse.

• Erosion of Low-Cost Social Interactions: Physical spaces where people could previously engage in spontaneous, low-cost conversations, like cafes and public parks, are becoming less conducive to social interaction as more people are engrossed in their phones. This shift reduces opportunities for organic, in-person connections and contributes to a sense of social isolation.

• Rise of Sports and Other Passionate Communities as New Social Hubs: Sports and other activities that require active participation are emerging as new centers for social interaction. Unlike passive engagements like watching TV, sports demand attention and participation, making them effective at fostering community and conversation in a way that mimics traditional religious or social gatherings.

• Search for New Forms of Community: As traditional institutions like religion decline, people are increasingly seeking new forms of community and belonging. Activities that mimic the rituals, social structures, and shared passions of religion—such as sports, music fandoms, or recurring social events—are filling the void, offering people a sense of connection and purpose that might have previously been provided by religious or civic institutions.